mikehudack:

lessin:

so, from what I have read - I am totally in accord with the concept that google is past tense - as parker seemed to suggest here

same theme, but my reasoning/phrasing - from an old blog-post, is a bit different.

the value of information is based on probability — google can only now support highly probable answers, static search results.  The capital of Colorado used to be a relatively more improbable answer than it is now

— Facebook and Twitter are pipes for the improbable.

I’m not smart enough to understand this. Pipes for the improbable? Please help. How is the capital of Colorado an improbable answer?

so - basically — the value of information is f(probability)….  if an answer is easy to find / commodity then knowing it is worthless.  Knowing that the capital of the US is Washington is worthless because everyone knows it, so no one will trade you anything for the information… the probability of information is always changing, evolving as information diffuses down the curve, from highly improbable and valuable to highly probable and worthless.

20 years ago, I would say ‘what is the capital of Colorado’ - two options:

1.  you ask the guy next to you — instant answer, but high probability that he is wrong

2.  you look it up in a trusted source in a library — slow answer, but high probability that it is right

10 years ago, Google became the way to pipe to a whole bunch of static information.  They were the game in town for answering static questions with a high probability of trust at fast speed.  They probabalized tons of information, and harvested the value.

So, the problem for google at this point on the web, answers to static questions - like ‘what is the capital of Colorado’ is totally commodity —- potential knowledge has been converted to universal knowledge.  I don’t need to know the answer — i can pluck it from a whole bunch of services — it’s value is fully diffused.

Just like there was a time when knowing that the world was round was a valuable piece of information, and now it is worthless commodity

The new valuable information is in facebook and twitter, because they catch information directly from people on the edge/before it becomes commodity.  I follow you personally because you generate high value edge information before it is worthless dogma that everyone knows.

Facebook and twitter provide pipes to sources of non-commodity improbable information.

So - static information’s value has been harvested down the probability curve.  now, dynamic personal private information is the game.